Forced migration and national security in context of contemporary challenges of migration law and public administration

Abstract

The article provides a comprehensive study of forced migration as a key factor influencing national security in the context of contemporary challenges in migration law and public administration. It is substantiated that, as a result of the full-scale war, forced migration in Ukraine has acquired a systemic and long-term character, transforming from a crisis phenomenon into a structural factor of the country’s socio-economic development. The main causes and features of contemporary migration processes are identified, including their large scale, duration, and multidimensional impact on the economic, social, demographic, and institutional components of national security. Based on an empirical analysis, the dynamics of forced migration in 2022–2025 are examined, which made it possible to identify a trend towards a gradual decrease in the number of migrants abroad and internally displaced persons, while maintaining significant migration flows. A close relationship between macroeconomic indicators and the scale of migration has been established. The results of econometric modeling demonstrate that the unemployment rate is the primary driver of forced migration, whereas economic growth acts as a restraining factor that stimulates return migration processes. The study analyzes contemporary challenges in migration law related to the need to adapt the regulatory framework to conditions of large-scale population displacement and to ensure a balance between the protection of human rights and national interests. It is proven that the system of public administration in the field of migration requires transformation towards greater adaptability, predictability, and institutional capacity. The paper proposes directions for improving public policy, including the integration of migration policy into the national security system, the development of mechanisms for reintegration and return of migrants, and the implementation of modern tools for migration management. The results obtained can be used in shaping effective migration policy and enhancing the resilience of socio-economic systems under contemporary challenges.